Francisco Lindor is no longer a Cleveland Indian, so slot this story wherever you need to for your mental health. I thought it was worth a look back on his contract offer from a few years ago, at least what we think we know about it, and how things will look if he signs something at least as big as the 10-year monster deal the Mets are offering him for $325 million. Why? Lindor reportedly turned down $100 million from the Indians ahead of the 2017 season and rolled the dice on his arbitration years heading into his free agency negotiation. So we’re here now, let’s discuss how it looks versus how it might have looked, had he signed with the Indians for six years and $100 million.
Much of this is speculation, of course. We heard hints and rumors about the Lindor offer from the Indians, but we don’t know any specifics for sure. I’ve heard it was a six-year offer, but some have suggested it was a seven-year deal that would have bought out two of Lindor’s free agency years. Obviously, that makes a difference, but we will go with the six years and $100 million for this exercise. The Indians would get one of his free agency years, and they would have avoided any arbitration conversations.
In the following table, I’ve graphed Lindor’s actual earnings with what I’m guessing his comp would have looked like, even given the pandemic pay-cut that occurred last season.
Now for the current-day context. Francisco Lindor is reportedly in a “stand-off” with the New York Mets. They’ve offered their final and best deal at 10 years and $325 million. Despite that being described as “final” and “best,” Lindor’s reps countered with a 12-year $385 million deal. This is helpful in a couple of ways. Lindor turned down the Indians and ended up getting to the free-agent market at least one year, if not two years early. It’s interesting to see Lindor countering a 10-year deal with a 12-year deal, because if you look at our guesses above, he appears to be down about $51 million compared to where he could have been. Without the pandemic pay cut, it would have been nearly $60 million. It’s probably not an accident that Lindor and his reps are seeking an additional two years and $60 million from their contract negotiations.
Lindor took a gamble by not taking the Indians’ money and now if he fails to realize his contract demands, he might feel silly for turning down so much guaranteed money from the Tribe, even if it did buy out a year or two of his free agency years. It’s especially stark when you look at 2017 and 2018 and how much more money he would have been making during that time. Of course, knowing the Indians, the deal also could have been backloaded so that he was only making $5 million in 2017, $10 million in 2018, and scaling it up more and more as the years went along. In that scenario, the pandemic year would have hurt much more presuming that the contract was higher than any of the three previous years. It means that Lindor would have taken an outsized hit due to the pandemic and it would have been in the Indians’ favor.
In the end, I’m sure the Indians are feeling pretty good about themselves. They got six years of Francisco Lindor for about $22 million total. They were still able to trade him for some players and prospects. They avoided his arbitration year where he’s over $22 million. They made an offer that they could have lived with, which would have served both the player and the team. Ultimately, Lindor and his partners turned it down, and it appears that they’re going to work hard to try and make up for it by getting a 12-year deal instead of a 10-year deal in order to secure the money they potentially left on the table back in 2017.
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April 01, 2021 at 12:00AM
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Can Frankie Lindor make up for lost dollars with his new Mets deal? - Waiting For Next Year
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